The share price is falling by nothing has changed with the fundamental outlook so I will continue to hold. It is not unusual for stocks to lose value after we invest, they are small stocks with uncertain growth trajectories. Some will make it some will not but it is important to make decisions for the right reasons and a short term drop in price is not a good reason
Stephen, but don't you think BLBD's fundamental is strong, and its price has already reflected the worst case scenario possible? and Short interest is above 15, which means there is small room downward, compared to a huge upside later on with a short squeeze.
With it's forward P/E below 10, which is less than half of its 5 yr average, how much downward can it go?
Hi, when we first bought BLBD it was at $18 and I set a target of $36 which it passed easily. After review I raised the target but a key part of that was the ongoing transition to clean power. That transition has stalled, two rounds of the IRA are yet to be handed out and at the moment we have to view them as at risk. The fact they go to red states is unlikely to make a difference, the same can be said of solar that has taken off in red states but is still likely to see reduced incentives. The size of the short interest does not dictate how far a share price can fall, only buying and selling in the market decides it. Of course I could easily be wrong I often am. It is a key part of my trading to bail out early, book profits or take losses. The stock fell 4% after I exited yesterday and it could easily fall another 10 or 20% in the coming few months. No doubt it will recover at some point but at the moment there is uncertainty and uncertainty is not good for prices
Thanks, have closed positions in both BLBD and NPWR as I agree that Trump has fundamentally changed the US clean energy outlook.
Will continue to hold Microsoft in my long term account.
Interested to discover your recommendations in Europe as this is a more difficult market to find strong growth. Unfortunately due to the nature of my portfolio wallets find it challenging to invest in Chinese stock but will still watch your options in this area.
Hi Alan, I agree with your thoughts on finding value in Europe and understand your problems regarding Chinese stocks. It is quite likely that the stocks I choose will be traded on US exchanges like Hesai and Ehang, they are both Chinese companies, but I trade them in the US. It may be similar with European stocks, I am looking for companies with their operations in Europe and the Far East, not necessarily their head office or stock market. China may be the great beneficiary of the US withdrawal from foreign aid, they may look to build influence by filling the gap perhaps presenting opportunities for Chinese companies. It is likely going to be a difficult year for investors with a lot of volatility but hopefully we can stay away from some of the big losers and keep hold of the winners.
Thanks. I do disagree on the BLBD call. Still a fundamentally sound company with good financials and solid prospects. The EV wave is just beginning and many districts will continue to purchase even without subsidies IMO.
I agree they are a fundamentally sound company with great financials and good long-term prospects. However, I see a scenario of significant short-term pain for shareholders as the price falls due to the ongoing moves of the new administration. Without a clean energy push, BlueBird will find it more challenging to sell its high-margin offerings. A big risk is that already agreed sales are canceled when the money is not delivered under the IRA program. The US clean energy sector looks very risky at the moment and the portfolio is heavyly weighted in that area, I hope I have cut the two most at risk and will use the cash to balance across other geographies and market sectors.
A good plan, I am always haunted by the number of times I have held on too long and turned a 20% loss into a 90% one. A big loss can destroy a whole years worth of gains, I decided some time ago to take a loss and move on. I do get it wrong and miss out on profit, but I can always jump back in again.
SES seems to have lost steam !
The share price is falling by nothing has changed with the fundamental outlook so I will continue to hold. It is not unusual for stocks to lose value after we invest, they are small stocks with uncertain growth trajectories. Some will make it some will not but it is important to make decisions for the right reasons and a short term drop in price is not a good reason
Stephen, but don't you think BLBD's fundamental is strong, and its price has already reflected the worst case scenario possible? and Short interest is above 15, which means there is small room downward, compared to a huge upside later on with a short squeeze.
With it's forward P/E below 10, which is less than half of its 5 yr average, how much downward can it go?
Hi, when we first bought BLBD it was at $18 and I set a target of $36 which it passed easily. After review I raised the target but a key part of that was the ongoing transition to clean power. That transition has stalled, two rounds of the IRA are yet to be handed out and at the moment we have to view them as at risk. The fact they go to red states is unlikely to make a difference, the same can be said of solar that has taken off in red states but is still likely to see reduced incentives. The size of the short interest does not dictate how far a share price can fall, only buying and selling in the market decides it. Of course I could easily be wrong I often am. It is a key part of my trading to bail out early, book profits or take losses. The stock fell 4% after I exited yesterday and it could easily fall another 10 or 20% in the coming few months. No doubt it will recover at some point but at the moment there is uncertainty and uncertainty is not good for prices
And with vast majority of IRA money flowing into Republican states, I doubt that Trump administartion can cancel IRA by amending its law.
Thanks, have closed positions in both BLBD and NPWR as I agree that Trump has fundamentally changed the US clean energy outlook.
Will continue to hold Microsoft in my long term account.
Interested to discover your recommendations in Europe as this is a more difficult market to find strong growth. Unfortunately due to the nature of my portfolio wallets find it challenging to invest in Chinese stock but will still watch your options in this area.
Hi Alan, I agree with your thoughts on finding value in Europe and understand your problems regarding Chinese stocks. It is quite likely that the stocks I choose will be traded on US exchanges like Hesai and Ehang, they are both Chinese companies, but I trade them in the US. It may be similar with European stocks, I am looking for companies with their operations in Europe and the Far East, not necessarily their head office or stock market. China may be the great beneficiary of the US withdrawal from foreign aid, they may look to build influence by filling the gap perhaps presenting opportunities for Chinese companies. It is likely going to be a difficult year for investors with a lot of volatility but hopefully we can stay away from some of the big losers and keep hold of the winners.
Thanks. I do disagree on the BLBD call. Still a fundamentally sound company with good financials and solid prospects. The EV wave is just beginning and many districts will continue to purchase even without subsidies IMO.
I agree they are a fundamentally sound company with great financials and good long-term prospects. However, I see a scenario of significant short-term pain for shareholders as the price falls due to the ongoing moves of the new administration. Without a clean energy push, BlueBird will find it more challenging to sell its high-margin offerings. A big risk is that already agreed sales are canceled when the money is not delivered under the IRA program. The US clean energy sector looks very risky at the moment and the portfolio is heavyly weighted in that area, I hope I have cut the two most at risk and will use the cash to balance across other geographies and market sectors.
I understand. I’m going to keep holding here, and calling a bottom at $31.
A good plan, I am always haunted by the number of times I have held on too long and turned a 20% loss into a 90% one. A big loss can destroy a whole years worth of gains, I decided some time ago to take a loss and move on. I do get it wrong and miss out on profit, but I can always jump back in again.